WASDE: Soy export increase lifts price projections slightly

By Susanne Retka Schill | November 20, 2009
Posted December 10, 2010

USDA pushed its projections for soy oil prices up by a couple of pennies in the Dec. 10 World Agricultural Supply Estimates. Soybean exports were increased by 15 million bushels from the previous month to 1.34 billion reflecting the record export pace in recent weeks and higher projected soybean imports by China. U.S. export commitments were at a record high through November, the report said, up almost 60 percent from a year ago. With projected crush unchanged, soybean ending stocks for 2009-'10 are projected at 255 million bushels, down 15 million from last month.

Soybeans and product price projections were all higher this month. The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2009-'10 were projected at $8.75 to $10.25 compared with $8.20 to $10.20 last month. Soybean oil prices were projected at 35.5 to 38.5 cents per pound compared with 33 to 37 cents last month. The soybean meal price was projected at $260 to $310 per ton, up $10 on the bottom of the range. USDA's projections for soy oil use for methyl esters was unchanged at 2.2 billion pounds.

Global rapeseed production was projected at a record 59.4 million tons, up 1.3 million from last month with gains for Canada more than offsetting lower production for India. Canadian rapeseed production was raised 1.6 million tons to 11.8 million based on the latest survey results from Statistics Canada. Higher-than-expected yields accounted for the change. India rapeseed production was lowered due to reduced harvested area. Hot, dry conditions during much of the planting season prevented India from reaching earlier expectations.

Overall global oilseed production for 2009-'10 was projected at 428.6 million tons, down 0.3 million from last month. Foreign oilseed production accounted for most of the change with increases for soybeans, rapeseed, and cottonseed more than offset by reductions for sunflowerseed and peanuts.

Global oilseed trade was projected at 94.4 million tons, up 0.7 million from last month. Increased rapeseed exports from Canada and Australia and increased soybean exports from the United States account for most of the change. China soybean imports were raised 0.5 million tons to 41 million, just below the record 41.1 million imported in 2008-'09.
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