WASDE: Soybean stocks tighten on record exports

By Susanne Retka Schill | June 09, 2009
Posted June 10, 2009

USDA lowered its projections for beginning and ending stocks in the 2009-'10 marketing year reflecting higher expected exports and crush for 2008-'09. The June 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report raised soybean exports for
2008-'09 to a record 1.25 billion bushels reflecting record sales and increased projected imports for China and reduced soybean exports from Argentina. Projected soybean exports for Argentina for 2008-'09 were reduced 2 million tons to 5.4 million, the lowest in nine years.

USDA raised its projections for the U.S. soybean crush due mainly to higher projected soybean meal exports. Soybean ending stocks for 2008-'09 were projected at 110 million bushels, down 20 million from the previous month's report. Ending stocks for 2009-'10 were also reduced 20 million bushels to 210 million. Other changes in this month's WASDE report include reduced soybean oil used for biodiesel production for 2008-'09 now estimated at 1.75 billion pounds and increased soybean oil exports for both 2008-'09 and 2009-'10. Higher soybean oil exports reflect lower projected exports from Brazil due to increased biodiesel production and use.

Soybean, meal, and oil prices were all raised this month. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2009-'10 were projected at $9 to $11 per bushel, up 55 cents on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices for 2009-'10 were projected at $275 to $335 per short ton, up $15 on both ends of the range. Soybean oil prices were projected at 33 to 37 cents per pound, up 0.5 cents on both ends of the range.

Global oilseed production for 2009-'10 was projected at 421.4 million tons, down 0.7 million from last month, mainly due to lower rapeseed production. EU-27 rapeseed production was reduced 0.6 million tons to 18.5 million mainly due to lower yields resulting from dry conditions in April and May in eastern growing areas. Increased China rapeseed production partly offsets the smaller EU-27 crop. Other changes included reduced sunflowerseed production for EU-27 and reduced soybean production for Ukraine. Argentina's 2008-'09 soybean production was reduced 2 million tons to 32
million reflecting low yields reported as harvest nears completion.

In its feed grain forecast, USDA projected lower supplies with 2009-'10 corn production estimated at 11.9 billion bushels, down 155 million from last month's projection. The national average yield was projected at 153.4 bushels per acre, 2 bushels lower as continued planting delays through late May reduced yield prospects, especially for the eastern Corn Belt. Early planting in the western Corn Belt and improved crop conditions from last year at this time, as reported in the June 8 Crop Progress report, are expected to partly offset the poor start to this year's crop in other parts of the country.
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