WASDE: More harvested soybean acres boost supply

By Susanne Retka Schill | September 16, 2008
Web exclusive posted Oct. 10, 2008 at 4:49 p.m. CST

The Oct. 10 USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report projected U.S. oilseed ending stocks for 2008-'09 would be significantly higher, up 2.6 million tons from last month, to 7.4 million tons.

Soybean production is forecast at 2.98 billion bushels, up 49 million from last month. Increased harvested area totaling 77 million acres, more than offsets a lower projected yield of 39.5 bushels per acre. Total soybean supplies are forecast up 111 million bushels with higher crop production and sharply higher beginning stocks. Soybean crush is reduced 25 million bushels to 1.76 billion based on weaker prospective domestic soybean meal demand. Soybean exports are raised 50 million bushels to 1.05 billion due to increased supplies and lower prices. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 220 million bushels, up 85 million from last month. Total U.S. oilseed production is projected at 89.9 million tons, up 1.8 million from last month due to higher soybean, sunflower seed, canola, and peanut production.

Prices for soybeans and soybean products for 2008-'09 are projected sharply lower this month. The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2008-'09 is projected at $9.60 to $11.10, down $2 on both ends of the range. The soybean oil price range is projected at 44 cents to 48 cents per pound, down 8 cents on both ends of the range. These changes reflect the rapid commodity price declines that have occurred in the past month. Projections for soy oil use for biodiesel were left unchanged from the previous month at 3,100 million pounds.

Global soybean production for 2008-'09 is projected up with increases for the United States, Canada, and the European Union. Global rapeseed production is projected higher mainly on increases for Canada and the European Union. Production in Canada is projected at a record 10.9 million tons, up 0.5 million tons based on the most recent survey from Statistics Canada.

Global oilseed stocks for 2008-'09 are raised 4.6 million tons to 65 million. Soybeans account for most of the change, with increases projected for the United States, Brazil, and Argentina.

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