WASDE: Global oilseed production to set record

By Susanne Retka Schill | August 08, 2008
Web exclusive posted Sept. 15, 2008 at 4:58 p.m. CST

The Sept. 12 USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report lowered its projections for the U.S. soybean crop by 39 million bushels, down to 2.93 billion bushels, but projected the global soybean crop will hit a record 238 million tons. The lowered prospects for U.S. production is due primarily to lower yield projections in the eastern Corn Belt. The soybean crush was reduced 30 million bushels due to sharply lower projected domestic soybean meal use and meal exports.

The USDA also made adjustments in the numbers for the 2007-'08 crop year just ending by reducing the soybean crush and increasing exports and ending stocks. Soybean exports are projected at a record 1.16 billion bushels and ending stocks are up 5 million bushels to 140 million. Soybean oil stocks for 2007-'08 are reduced, reflecting lower production.

The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2008-'09 was projected at $11.60 to $13.10 per bushel, up 10 cents on both ends of the range. The projected soybean meal price was unchanged at $330 to $390 per short ton and the soybean oil price range was reduced 2 cents on both ends to between 52 cents and 56 cents per pound.

Global soybean production is projected at a record 238 million tons, up 9 percent from 2007-'08. Argentina soybean production was raised to a record 50.5 million tons based on higher expected area. China soybean production was raised 500,000 tons to 16.5 million based on increased yields. Global rapeseed production was raised 1.2 million tons to 53.4 million, an 11 percent increase over 2007-'08. Rapeseed crops are projected higher for Canada, EU-27, and Belarus. Other changes include increased global oilseed stocks, which were raised 3 million tons to 60.4 million for 2008-'09 primarily due to increased rapeseed stocks in Canada and increased soybean stocks in South America and China. China soybean imports for 2007-'08 are raised to a record 36.5 million tons.
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