USDA’s projections for increased exports and crush in the current marketing year brought the projected U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2009/’10 down 35 million bushels from last month to 210 million bushels, in the latest World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report released Feb. 9.
Soybean exports are raised 25 million bushels to 1.4 billion as export shipments continue to exceed earlier projections. Although a record South American harvest is expected to reach the market in coming weeks, tight old-crop South American supplies resulting from last year’s historic drought in Argentina continue to support U.S. exports. Soybean crush is raised 10 million bushels to 1.72 billion reflecting strong soybean meal exports and a lower soybean meal extraction rate. Soybean oil stocks are projected higher this month as the increased crush more than offsets a small reduction in the soybean oil extraction rate.
Soybean oil used for methyl ester is unchanged this month despite reduced production due to the loss of the $1 per gallon blending credit at the end of December. The recent Environmental Protection Agency announcement of final rules for the 2009 and 2010 biodiesel mandates is expected to result in offsetting production gains through the end of the 2009/’10 marketing year.
The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2008/’09 is projected at $8.70 to $10.20 per bushel, down 20 cents on both ends of the range. The soybean oil price is projected at 33.5 to 36.5 cents per pound, down 2.5 cents on both ends of the range. The soybean meal price is projected at $270 to $320 per short ton, up 5 dollars on both ends.
Global oilseed production for 2009/’10 is projected at 433.7 million tons, up 2.1 million from last month. Global soybean production is raised 1.6 million tons to 255 million tons. Improved production prospects for South America account for most of the change. Soybean production for Brazil is projected at 66 million tons, up 1 million from last month due to higher yields. Soybean production is also raised for Paraguay and Uruguay. Global rapeseed production is raised this month due to a larger
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projected crop for EU-27.
Global oilseed trade is raised 0.9 million tons to 96.3 million tons, mainly due to increased soybean imports for China and Egypt. Higher global oilseed crush mainly reflects increased rapeseed crush in Canada, China, and EU-27. Global oilseed stocks are mostly unchanged at 71.1 million tons.